Photo by Max Kukurudziak on Unsplash
By Cindy Chen
John A. Scherpereel, professor of political science at James Madison University, delivered a lecture in Seibert Hall on the war in Ukraine and its corresponding effects on Europe. Scherpereel’s outlook — while pragmatic — was also optimistic concerning cooperation between European countries.
Although Ukraine has been granted candidate status by the European Union (EU), Scherpereel believes it unlikely that the country will be promoted to membership in the near future due to queue issues. Other countries in line for EU membership, along with Ukraine, include Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia.
In response to an audience member asking about the significance of Ukraine’s candidacy status, Professor Scherpereel clarified that Ukraine’s candidacy status was a more symbolic gesture than an actual intent to welcome the country into the EU. Yet, the significance of the EU’s response should not be underestimated. EU leaders only took three months to endorse Ukraine as a potential EU member — demonstrating their eagerness to help the country.
The EU’s support for Ukraine was shown almost immediately after the invasion in the form of sanctions against Russia. However, Scherpereel revealed that conflicts between the union’s members have since risen. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, suggested that certain sanctions on Russian oligarchs should be lifted, prompting several EU diplomats to label him as a traitor. Orbán’s support of Russian nuclear power plants and his attempts to undermine the EU’s efforts at limiting Russian oil imports only add to the tension.
According to Scherpereel, the audience should not expect the Russian invasion of Ukraine to catalyze a great leap forward in EU policies to aid Ukraine. Instead, marginal progress toward “deepening,” which Scherpereel explains as expanding the set of policies handled at the continental level, is the most likely course the EU will take.
Scherpereel expects the EU to prioritize “deepening” in energy policies since promoting connections between the energy networks of its members was already on the union’s agenda before the invasion. However, this will prove to be a difficult task as the EU’s member states all have different access to natural resources and varying energy strategies.
The approaching challenge should not be a shock as energy has been a historically challenging policy sector for the EU. Yet, Russia — through its aggressive actions — has incurred long-term reputational costs while driving EU leaders to begin becoming independent of Russian.
While Ukraine’s future remains uncertain, the country can at least depend on support from the European Union, albeit whether the EU is providing enough is up for debate.